Have you ever watched one of those big pendulums—the kind that swings high and low, left and right, never stopping, just slowing before it changes direction?

That’s where we are right now. As we head into Christmas, the Lowcountry housing market feels like it’s sitting at the lowest point of the swing. Not stalled. Not frozen. Just paused before momentum shifts. 

What We’re Seeing on the Ground. Over the past few weeks, something meaningful has changed. Showing activity has picked up  Buyers are out exploring—quietly, intentionally

Most of our buyers aren’t rushing; they’re choosing areas, refining preferences, and preparing for a Q1 purchase. Some have homes to put on the market  and they are waiting for Jan/Feb to do so, then will circle back to homes in our area to buy. 

This is classic leading-indicator behavior. Buyers move first. Closings follow later.

To me, it feels like we’re headed into a better market—but the details matter. Why Leading and Lagging Indicators Matter? Here’s where economics comes in.

Buyer demand is a leading indicator

Appraisals are a lagging indicator and this is where I expect some friction early next year. Appraisers typically rely on the past six months of closed sales. Consider where the market has been during that window:

Prices were being chased down

Reductions were common

Sellers were adjusting to a slower environment

Now fast-forward to Q1-Q2 of 2026:

More buyers will be competing for fewer “right” homes

Demand will feel stronger

But appraisals may still reflect yesterday’s softer data

That mismatch can create tension—especially for financed buyers. I don’t have a crystal ball, but I’ve seen this movie before. February and March can be bumpy. By April, May, and June, the data tends to catch up to reality.

What This Means for Buyers. If you’re financing, expect competition and scrutiny. You may win the house—but the appraisal still has a vote. That’s why preparation matters:

Strong lenders

Smart structure

Clear understanding of value vs. emotion

Timing the market isn’t about guessing rates—it’s about understanding where we are in the cycle. And right now, this feels like the moment before acceleration.

What This Means for Sellers. The next 90 days look active—but this is not 2021. Again, I don't have a crystal ball but this is what we expect:

More homes re-listing. More aggressive, strategic pricing. Sellers who learned the hard way that “testing the market” can burn twice. The sellers who succeed will be the ones who align: pricing + timing + presentation + patience

Even diamonds—exceptional homes with views, quality, and nuance—may face appraisal questions at first. But if a seller is willing to wait, the market does eventually set the price.

Big Picture Outlook:

Q1 Rising demand, appraisal friction, competitive buyers

Q2 Data catches up, smoother transactions

Q3 Full swing momentum if current trends hold

The market has been swinging down. Now it’s slowing. And history tells us what usually comes next. We are excited to see what is to come! 

On A Holiday Note….. Beyond economics, this is one of the best times of year to be here.

We’re projected to see Christmas Day temperatures in the 70s—green trees, Spanish moss, marsh views glowing in winter light. It’s the Lowcountry reminding us why people choose this place in every season. Thank you for following along with us this year. We hope we’ve brought clarity, context, and real value—not just headlines. We’re grateful you’re here, whether you’re exploring, planning, or putting down roots. And we’re excited to move into 2026 with you—what we believe could be a record-breaking year, not because of frenzy, but because of fundamentals.

From our porch to yours—happy holidays, and we’ll see you on the next swing of the pendulum.

Allison Sutcliffe Greco

The Greco Group, eXp Realty

allisongrecorealtor@gmail.comExplore Homes For Sale

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